Molecular Psychiatry

Antidepressants are widely prescribed for major depressive disorder, yet only one-third of patients achieve remission after initial treatment. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of clinically assessed antidepressant response combined multiple antidepressant classes, potentially obscuring class-specific effects. This study focused on selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), often first-line due to better tolerability. Data from 15 cohorts across four ancestries were integrated: European (N = 3887; 11 studies), East Asian (N = 1068; 4), African (N = 277; 1), and Admixed American (N = 250; 1). GWAS of non-remission and percentage improvement were conducted within cohorts, followed by ancestry-specific meta-analyses and trans-ancestry meta-regression. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based heritability was estimated in European samples. Polygenic scores were used for leave-one-out prediction and to assess shared genetic architecture with psychiatric traits. Gene-level and gene-set enrichment analyses were also performed. No genome-wide significant variants were identified for either outcome in any ancestry-specific or trans-ancestry analyses. However, trans-ancestry meta-regression yielded eight independent loci with suggestive associations (p < 1 x 10-5) for non-remission and 17 for percentage improvement. Gene-set analyses revealed nominal enrichment of the serotonergic synapse pathway for non-remission. SNP-based heritability estimates were not significantly different from zero for either outcome. Better SSRI response was nominally associated with lower genetic predisposition to major depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, and schizophrenia. This study represents the largest trans-ancestry GWAS of SSRI response, highlighting emerging biological signals. Limited power emphasises the need for larger and ancestrally diverse cohorts to better characterise the genetic architecture of antidepressant response.

Background: The biological mechanisms linking generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and COVID-19 remain poorly understood, despite substantial evidence of their comorbidity. To address this gap, we examined genetic and epigenetic factors underlying their co-occurrence. Methods: In a multi-ancestry sample of 893 participants, we conducted genome-wide and epigenome-wide analyses of GAD and COVID-19 severity. Integrating large-scale genome-wide datasets and information regarding methylation quantitative trait loci, complementary analytic approaches were used to identify regional methylation patterns, assess genetically regulated DNA methylation in blood and brain tissue, and evaluate causal loci shared between GAD and COVID-19. Results: GAD was associated with epigenome-wide significant variation in loci involved in chromatin regulation and synaptic signaling. Conversely, COVID-19-related epigenetic signals were enriched in immune-inflammatory and host-response pathways. Mild COVID-19 was epigenetically related to endothelial-inflammatory signals, while severe COVID-19 was linked to epigenetic changes implicated in myeloid and thrombo-inflammatory pathways. Epigenetic signals shared between GAD and COVID-19 implicated processes related to stress adaptation and tissue homeostasis. Genetically informed analyses identified 60 shared loci, including MAPT, ZFP57, and FBXL18, indicating pleiotropy between GAD and COVID-19 in genetically regulated DNA methylation variation. Brain-specific analyses further highlighted convergence in additional loci (i.e., MICB and HLA-DPB1), suggesting neuroimmune mechanisms underlying GAD-COVID-19 shared methylation patterns. Conclusions: These findings support that GAD and COVID-19 share epigenetic and genetic architecture involving pathways related to vascular integrity, immune function, and cellular adaptation, highlighting a potential neuroimmune basis for their co-occurrence.

In treatment-resistant schizophrenia, clozapine treatment has been associated with longitudinal reductions in subcortical volumes, ventricular enlargement, and widespread cortical thinning. However, it is unknown how these structural changes relate to clozapines pharmacological profile and clinical efficacy. We combined five longitudinal datasets with MRI acquired before and on average 5 months after clozapine initiation in 143 individuals to quantify brain structural changes and their association with normative maps relating to neuroreceptor architecture and physiological systems, and improvement in symptom severity. Clozapine treatment was associated with grey matter volume reductions across multiple subcortical regions (including the amygdala, hippocampus, thalamus, caudate, putamen and nucleus accumbens), increases in pallidal volume, ventricular enlargement, and widespread cortical thinning. Cortical regions showing the greatest magnitude of thinning corresponded to areas with higher normative densities of serotonergic 5-HT1A, 5-HT2A and 5-HT4 receptors. Changes in subcortical volume or cortical thickness during clozapine treatment were not associated with changes in total or positive symptom severity. In addition, baseline subcortical volume, cortical thickness, or gyrification prior to starting clozapine did not predict subsequent symptom improvement. Cortical thinning may partly reflect clozapines activity at serotonergic receptors, which have been implicated in cortical network stabilisation and neuroplasticity, however structural remodelling during clozapine treatment may reflect a process independent from its clinical efficacy in improving core symptoms of psychosis.

In the past two decades, the focus on genome-wide association studies in large samples of unrelated patients has overshadowed family genetic studies. Therefore, little is still known about the levels and effects of the transmission of polygenic risk scores (PRS) among familial cases of schizophrenia (SZ) or bipolar disorder (BD) and their unaffected relatives. Prior research has shown that PRS are elevated in both patients and young individuals at familial risk for BD and SZ. We sought to study the transmission of PRS in affected multigenerational families and non-affected adult relatives (NAARs) with or without other non-mood nonpsychotic DSM-IV diagnoses and unrelated non-affected individuals from the same population. We genotyped 1,117 participants divided in 48 families from the Eastern Quebec Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder Kindreds. PRSs for both SZ and BD were computed using Multivariate Lassosum. For both SZ PRS and BD PRS, SZ and BD cases present higher PRS compared to controls, replicating previous findings. Regardless of a diagnosis of other non-psychotic and non-mood conditions, NAARs presented higher PRS than the unrelated cohort. Crucially, a subset of families presented consistently low PRS transmission profiles across generations, falling below expectations from our polygenic inheritance model. When the effect of individual PRs is accounted for, we observed sex-specific associations between familial PRS and patients' symptom dimensions. Our results clearly demonstrate that polygenic inheritance alone does not adequately explain disease transmission in families. Such an approach may also clarify why some families exhibit dense clustering of cases despite minimal polygenic burden.

Background. Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) frequently co-occur following infection, yet shared genetic architecture at the locus level has not been systematically characterised. Aims. To estimate global and local genetic correlations between ME/CFS (including infection-onset subgroup), IBS, major depressive disorder (MDD) and loneliness/isolation, and characterise ME/CFS cell-type heritability enrichment. Method. GWAS summary statistics: DecodeME (15,579 ME/CFS; 9,738 infection-onset), FinnGen R9 (9,296 IBS), PGC MDD Wave 2 (45,396) and UK Biobank loneliness (N=455,364). LDSC for global correlations; LAVA for local correlations across 2,495 loci; MAGMA for cell-type enrichment (Descartes Human atlas); coloc.abf for colocalisation. Results. All pairwise global correlations were significant after Bonferroni correction, including ME/CFS-all-MDD (rg=0.598, 95% CI 0.46-0.74) and ME/CFS-all-IBS (rg=0.573, 0.39-0.75). Of 4,232 local tests, 16 reached FDR<0.05; two lonelinessxMDD loci were Bonferroni-significant. ME/CFS-MDD showed three FDR-significant local correlations, but all were boundary-estimated and non-Bonferroni-significant. A borderline infection-onset ME/CFS-IBS signal occurred at chr12q24.22 ({rho}=1.000, FDR=0.046), but colocalisation did not support a shared causal variant (PP.H4=0.007). ME/CFS heritability was enriched in inhibitory neurons (P=1.210x-7) and enteric nervous system neurons (FDR=0.004), with no FDR-significant peripheral immune cell-type enrichment in the atlas used. Conclusions. High global ME/CFS-MDD correlation was accompanied by limited, boundary-estimated, non-Bonferroni-robust local sharing; the data do not support reducing ME/CFS to depression at the genetic-architecture level. Neural enrichment, including enteric nervous system neurons, supports involvement of neural components in ME/CFS susceptibility without excluding immune mechanisms. A borderline ME/CFS-IBS signal at a NOS1-containing region generated hypotheses requiring replication.

Stimulant use disorder (StimUD) is a significant public health problem, but genetic studies have been limited by small sample sizes. We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of StimUD in the Million Veteran Program (MVP) and All of Us (AOU), followed by meta-analysis with FinnGen and 10 additional datasets, for a total of 709,369 individuals (Ncases=33,977, Ncontrols=675,392) in four broad ancestry groups: European (EUR) (Ncases=22,564, Ncontrols=624,672), African (AFR) (Ncases=7,574, Ncontrols=34,189), Admixed American (AMR) (Ncases=3,657, Ncontrols=15,698), and East Asian (EAS) (Ncases=182, Ncontrols=833). Population-specific SNP heritability was 6.1% in EUR and 2.4% in AFR. We discovered a total of 19 genome-wide-significant loci, six in EUR, including DRD2*rs5794864, P=7.32E-10, one in AFR, five in a multi-ancestry meta-analysis, including CHRNA5*rs55781567, P=3.27E-9, two in a male-only meta-analysis, including FTO*rs8057044, P=9.50E10-9, and five in a meta-analysis of sex-stratified results. In a hold-out AOU subsample (NEUR=18,841, NAFR=12,263, NAMR=9,739), ancestry-specific polygenic risk scores were significantly associated with StimUD in EUR (OR=3.28, 95% confidence interval (CI)=2.89-3.71) and AMR (OR=2.01, 95% CI=1.71-2.37). Transcriptome-wide association studies, fine-mapping, and colocalization analyses prioritized additional genes (e.g., GPX1, BSN). Genetic correlation, Mendelian randomization, and causal mixture analyses revealed relationships with other substance use and use disorder phenotypes, including cannabis use disorder (rg=0.94, P=5.43E-237) and opioid use disorder (rg=1.01, P=4.40E-107), and other psychiatric traits, including anxiety, depression, neuroticism, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. This is the first well-powered GWAS of StimUD, and it offers significant insights into disease biology.

Background. Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) index early risk for psychotic disorders and are consistently associated with childhood trauma, yet underlying biological mechanisms remain poorly understood. DNA methylation (DNAm) may capture the biological embedding of early adversity, while adolescent exposures such as cannabis use may modify these processes. We examined epigenome-wide associations of childhood trauma and PLEs, tested the moderating role of early cannabis use, and evaluated DNAm as a potential mediator. Methods. We analysed data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK population-based birth cohort. Childhood trauma was assessed prospectively and retrospectively. Epigenome-wide DNAm was measured in peripheral blood at ~17 years using the Illumina 450K array, and PLEs were assessed at 18 using a structured interview. Epigenome-wide association studies were conducted for trauma-DNAm and DNAm-PLEs associations in the final sample (n = 1,457), adjusting for demographic, biological, and technical covariates. Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified using DMRff, followed by functional enrichment analyses. Cannabis use at 15.5 was modelled as a moderator with multiple imputation for missing data. Mediation was tested using the Divide-Aggregate Composite-null Test (DACT). Results. Childhood trauma was associated with widespread DNAm differences, primarily at the regional level, with enrichment in pathways related to cellular stress responses. In contrast, DNAm associated with PLEs was more limited and implicated loci involved in epigenetic regulatory processes. These signatures were largely distinct, and there was no evidence supporting mediation after multiple testing correction. Incorporating cannabis use altered the pattern and extent of DNAm associations, with stronger and more significant signals observed at both CpG and regional levels, although these did not translate into evidence of mediation. Conclusion. Childhood trauma and PLEs show distinct DNAm signatures in adolescence, with trauma-related DNAm reflecting broad stress-related processes and PLE-associated DNAm implicating regulatory mechanisms. We found little evidence that DNAm mediates the trauma-PLE association. Instead, adolescent exposures, particularly cannabis use, may distinctly influence trauma-related epigenetic variation with limited detectable downstream effects on PLEs. These findings support a context-dependent model of epigenetic risk and highlight the need for larger longitudinal studies to clarify causal pathways linking early adversity to psychosis.

Objective. Persistent, distressing psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are associated with neurobiological alterations and increased psychosis risk. We combined individual-level neuroimaging measures with effect sizes from large neuroimaging studies to create a summary score ('Psychosis Neuroscore') reflecting neuroanatomic liability for psychosis, and examined its ability to predict PLE trajectories in young adolescents. Method. Using latent growth mixture models, we estimated PLE trajectories from four annual visits of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (N=9584, ages 9-10 at baseline). Using baseline T1-weighted and diffusion-weighted imaging data, we calculated Psychosis Neuroscores, as well as Neuroscores for two psychiatric disorders with late adolescent/adult onset (Major Depressive Disorder, Bipolar Disorder). We compared Psychosis Neuroscores to i) other psychiatric Neuroscores, ii) modifiable risk factors, and iii) established risk factors in predicting trajectory membership. Results. We identified four trajectories of distressing PLEs: Persistent Elevated (N=1,968, 21%), Gradual Decreasing (N=3,424, 36%), Rapid Decreasing (N=1,593, 17%) and Low/No Distress (N=2,599, 27%). Adolescents with Persistent Elevated PLEs had significantly higher Multimodal (combined T1 and diffusion-weighted) and T1-weighted Psychosis Neuroscores than all other trajectories (Odds Ratios [ORs] 1.27-1.34,pFDR<.01). Bipolar Disorder Neuroscores showed a similar pattern (ORs 1.16-1.23,pFDR<.01). Psychosis Neuroscores showed comparable associations with established risk factors in predicting trajectory membership, but smaller associations than modifiable risk factors, including screen time, physical activity, and sleep disturbances. Conclusion. Psychosis Neuroscores differentiate youth with persistent PLEs from those with decreasing, remitting or low PLEs, demonstrating their potential utility for early risk stratification. Integration with established risk factors may enhance psychosis risk prediction in youth.

Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is clinically heterogeneous, hindering identification of reproducible biomarkers. Using a semi-supervised machine learning approach, HYDRA, we previously identified two neuroanatomical dimensions from structural MRI in medication-free MDD from COORDINATE-MDD consortium. These dimensions (D1, D2) showed differential responses to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants and placebo. External replication in UK Biobank linked D2, characterized by widespread subtle neuroanatomical reductions, to an immuno-metabolic profile. Here, we examined whether these dimensions are detectable early in the course of illness. Methods: We applied the pre-trained model to structural MRI data from the multisite PRONIA cohort, comprising individuals with recent-onset depression (ROD; n = 377; mean age 25.8 years, SD 6.0; 51.3% female) and healthy controls (n = 267; mean age 25.5 years, SD 6.4; 61.0% female). Participants were assigned to clusters (C1, C2) corresponding to the previously identified dimensions (D1, D2). Clusters were compared on clinical symptom profiles, peripheral inflammatory markers, and in a subset (n = 107), proteomic ageing indices. Results: Two neuroanatomical clusters were identified in PRONIA. C1 (n = 265) showed higher negative symptom severity and elevated interleukin-2 levels. C2 (n = 140) was associated with higher residual proteomic age. Overall depressive symptom severity did not differ significantly between clusters. Conclusions: Neuroanatomical dimensions of MDD are reproducible and detectable at illness onset. Associations with negative symptom severity, inflammatory signalling, and proteomic ageing suggest these dimensions capture biologically meaningful heterogeneity early in depression. These findings support a biologically informed framework for stratified treatment approaches in MDD.

Background Low-level systemic inflammation has been associated with late-life depressive symptoms. Whether individuals with higher inflammation derive preventive benefit from low-dose aspirin therapy is unknown. Methods We performed a post-hoc analysis of the ASPiring in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Baseline C-reactive protein (hsCRP) was measured in plasma and depressive symptoms were assessed annually using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression 10 Scale with elevated symptoms defined as CES-D-10 >= 8. Participants with elevated depressive symptoms at baseline were excluded. We fitted population-averaged logistic generalised estimating equation models adjusted for baseline sociodemographic and lifestyle covariates, including an hsCRP x treatment interaction to test effect modification by aspirin. Results Higher baseline hsCRP was associated with increased odds of elevated depressive symptoms during follow-up (OR 1.07 per SD increase in hsCRP, 95% CI 1.03-1.11). Low-dose aspirin allocation did not modify the hsCRP-depressive symptoms association (interaction OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.94-1.10). Findings were similar after additional adjustment for comorbidity and other covariates. Conclusions In community-dwelling older adults during the ASPREE randomised trial period, higher baseline hsCRP was modestly associated with elevated depressive symptoms. There was no evidence that low-dose aspirin was associated with reduced risk of depressive symptoms among participants with higher baseline inflammation.

Background: While genetic factors strongly influence brain aging trajectories, variants conferring cognitive resilience remain poorly characterized. The neurokinin-3 receptor (NK3-R), encoded by Tachykinin Receptor 3 (TACR3), modulates cholinergic signaling in memory circuits vulnerable to aging. Previous studies linked the non-WT expression of the TACR3 variant rs2765 with cognitive decline and reduced volume of the hippocampus and basal forebrain, but systematic replication and mechanistic validation were lacking. Methods: We investigated rs2765 in the preregistered AgeGain cohort of cognitively healthy older adults (n=188) with independent validation in the ADNI cohort (n=809) which includes persons with and without Alzheimers Disease (AD) that show healthy cognition, mild cognitive impairment or dementia. Analyses integrated structural neuroimaging, longitudinal cognitive assessments, epigenetic aging (PhenoAge), genome-wide methylation profiling, and mechanistic validation through luciferase assays and cross-species protein expression studies. Results: The infrequent protective rs2765 WT variant, found in 12.8% of Europeans, conferred 49% slower cognitive decline (p = 0.002) for amyloid-positive individuals of the ADNI cohort and 3.7 years younger epigenetic age (p = 0.013, 95% CI: 0.79-6.67 years) in the cognitively healthy AgeGain cohort. WT carriers showed larger hippocampal and basal forebrain volumes across cohorts, with Allen Brain Atlas integration revealing these outcomes to occur exclusively in regions where TACR3 expression positively correlated with gray matter volume. Mechanistically, the non-WT variant ameliorated RBMX-mediated post-transcriptional regulation, reducing NK3-R protein expression by 25-40% in vitro and ex vivo murine brain slice models. Senescence-accelerated mice exhibited reduced endogenous NK3-R expression, phenocopying the predicted functional consequences of the variant. In AgeGain participants, genome-wide methylation profiling identified 2,313 differentially methylated CpGs affecting 228 pathways spanning glutamatergic signaling, acetylcholine receptor pathways, chromatin remodeling, and angiogenesis, suggesting coordinated molecular reprogramming from synaptic function to systemic aging. Conclusions: rs2765 WT confers resilience to age- and AD-related cognitive decline through RBMX-dependent regulation of NK3-R expression, with effects of remarkable size cascading from memory to systemic aging. rs2765 genotyping could stratify individuals for NK3-R modulator therapy (e.g., fezolinetant or senktides) and identify those maintaining function despite pathological burden, complementing APOE-based risk assessment in precision geromedicine.

Educational attainment-related polygenic scores have been implicated in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but how parental polygenic scores shape offspring phenotypes remains unclear. Using genotyping and exome-sequencing data from 142,357 individuals (55,252 ASD cases) in a large ASD cohort, we dissected the direct and indirect genetic effects of educational attainment-related polygenic scores on ASD phenotypes. Trio-model analyses showed that parental polygenic scores for educational attainment (PGSEA ) were associated with milder core ASD symptoms, including social deficits and repetitive behaviors, predominantly through indirect genetic effects, whereas their associations with comorbidities were driven predominantly by direct genetic effects. PGSEA was also significantly negatively associated with rare variant burden and prenatal factors, although these factors contributed largely independently to most phenotypes. Adjustment for full-scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) and socioeconomic status (SES) partially attenuated the indirect effects of PGSEA on offspring phenotypes. Finally, higher parental PGSEA was associated with later age at diagnosis in offspring, partly through its protective effects on ASD phenotypes. These findings indicate that indirect genetic effects of parentalPGSEA contribute substantially to phenotypic variation in ASD and highlight family-mediated pathways as an important component of ASD heterogeneity.

Background: Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is characterized by disturbing thoughts (obsessions) that initiate anxiety-reducing thoughts or behaviors (compulsions). For patients with treatment-resistant OCD (tr-OCD), neuromodulation techniques, like capsulotomy (a lesion in the anterior limb of the internal capsule) and deep brain stimulation (DBS), have emerged as interventions that likely regulate connectivity between the prefrontal cortex (PFC) and subcortical targets. Three patients (Cap-DBS1-3) underwent a failed capsulotomy followed by successful DBS. Here, we aimed to understand the brain connections disrupted by failed capsulotomy vs modulated by successful DBS. Methods: We used diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) tractography in a control cohort with tr-OCD (n=12) and in two of the Cap-DBS patients themselves to determine connectivity profiles of the capsulotomy, volume of tissue activated (VTA), and potentially necessary tracts (VTA minus capsulotomy tracts). We used whole-brain, PFC-focused, and subcortically-focused tractography algorithms to fully explore the space of possible connections. Results: Capsulotomy regions-of-interest (ROIs) connected with a variety of PFC and subcortical regions. VTA ROIs and potentially necessary tracts had limited and inconsistent PFC connectivity but substantial subcortical connectivity. While correlated to the average OCD connectome (r = 0.214, 95% CI [0.177, 0.251]; r = 0.756, 95% CI [0.739, 0.772]), the Cap-DBS connectomes had many edges that were stronger (z-score > 3). Conclusions: The connectivity profile of potentially necessary tracts for successful DBS treatment after failed capsulotomy revealed a surprising proportion of subcortical regions and inconsistent PFC involvement, highlighting an often-ignored set of connections that may be critical to effective DBS.

Background: Most approaches to suicide risk assessment consider clinical conditions as independent risk factors, potentially overlooking prognostic information in the order in which conditions accumulate. We applied temporal sequence mining to linked claims and mortality data to identify ordered clinical diagnostic trajectories associated with suicide death. Results: The cohort included 3 647 059 insured Maryland residents aged 10 years or older with available claims records in the Maryland Suicide Data Warehouse from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020, among whom 768 suicide deaths were ascertained through medical examiner linkage. Sequential pattern mining of ICD-10-CM diagnoses grouped into Clinical Classifications Software Refined categories identified 89 221 candidate sequences, of which 1 816 remained significantly associated with suicide death in time-varying Cox models. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) ranged from 2.4 to 134.1. Two-thirds of significant trajectories ended in physical conditions, and approximately half crossed from psychiatric to physical endpoints. Among suicide decedents, 62% were exposed to at least 1 significant sequence (median, 16 per case); median sequence duration was 18.7 months, and median time from completion to death was 13.1 months. In landmark analyses, among patients with depression who later developed suicidal ideation (n = 26 356), the path through anxiety, then anemia, was associated with higher risk (AHR, 4.6; 95% CI, 2.2-9.5), whereas the anxiety-only path was not (AHR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.8-2.1). Among patients with anxiety who later developed hypertension (n = 149 215), the path through history of self-harm was associated with higher risk (AHR, 32.0; 95% CI, 16.6-61.6). Associations were generally consistent across sex and age. Conclusions: Temporal ordering of clinical conditions may carry prognostic information for suicide death. Clinical trajectories incorporating physical illness within psychiatric sequences identified higher-risk groups. These findings suggest that opportunities for risk detection may extend beyond psychiatric settings and that suicide risk signals may be fragmented across care settings and not apparent within isolated encounters.

High placebo response is an obstacle in developing drugs to treat agitation in Alzheimer's disease (AAD), a prevalent and burdensome symptom. However, it has proved challenging to develop actionable models of placebo response that 1) can be applied prospectively, requiring only information available at screening or baseline, 2) yield strategies for reducing placebo response without equally depressing drug response, and 3) show generalizability across trials. Here, we first investigated placebo response in AAD at the trial level using meta-regression applied to 23 clinical trials. Meta-regression identified several factors associated with increased placebo response, but most of these factors were non-specific such that they predicted improvements in drug response as well. We therefore turned to individual level clinical trial datasets and applied causal modeling to predict which participants would have high placebo response relative to predicted drug response. We successfully built and validated the causal model across two independent clinical trials of risperidone and haloperidol at the level of individual patients (ability to predict subsequent improvement on drug or placebo). Crucially, we also found efficacy improvements in the overall trial through in silico exclusion/screen failing of high placebo-predicted subjects. We further characterized features most associated with placebo response to improve explainability and, lastly, validated the effect of these features at the trial level in clinical trials of galantamine, an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor (hence in a different class of drugs than those in the other two trials used). Taken together, we have developed and applied a causal modeling framework for reducing placebo response and increasing trial-level efficacy in neuropsychiatry clinical trials using historical trial datasets.

Mood and anxiety disorders emerge predominantly in adolescence, yet they are usually identified only once symptoms have consolidated, when intervention can only be reactive. A marker that registers the loss of healthy brain function before symptoms crystallise would allow earlier and more targeted treatment, much as caged canaries once warned miners of danger before it became apparent. Here we report such a marker using a single baseline resting-state functional MRI scan in 150 adolescents in the Human Connectome Project Boston Adolescent Neuroimaging of Depression and Anxiety (HCP BANDA) cohort, allowing us to prospectively predict depression and anxiety symptoms one year later in held-out participants at r = 0.60, substantially above the effect-size ceiling reported for functional connectivity in the same data. The marker is not computed from raw functional connectivity but read out from a whole-brain generative model fitted to each individual's dynamics, which gives access to interference structure that covariance-based features cannot represent. The regions driving the prediction, including precuneus, ventromedial prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortices, are among those previously implicated in internalising disorders, and the same signature tracks cognitive variation in healthy participants and is mechanistically linked to the efficiency of task-related computation. These findings establish a mechanistically interpretable and prospectively predictive marker of adolescent mental health and define a clear path towards external validation and clinical use.

Synapse loss is an early feature of neurodegeneration and may provide sensitive biomarkers for experimental medicine. Positron emission tomography (PET) with the synaptic vesicle glycoprotein 2A radioligand [11C]UCB-J shows widespread signal reduction across dementias. However, it remains unclear which aspects of synaptic integrity [11C]UCB-J PET measures. We developed a histological-imaging pipeline to quantify structurally intact synapses in post-mortem brain tissue. We applied it to six donors with the tauopathy progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) who had ante-mortem [11C]UCB-J-PET, alongside six controls across 11 brain regions. Synapse loss in PSP was widespread but region-specific across cortical, subcortical, and brainstem regions. Greater synapse loss was associated with higher tau burden and pathology, and cortical synaptic density correlated with ante-mortem cognition. Post-mortem synaptic density correlated with in vivo [11C]UCB-J-PET signal. This study provides validation of SV2A PET as a biomarker of synaptic density and supports integration of imaging with histopathology in neurodegenerative disease research.

Introduction: Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME)/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) is a debilitating condition characterised by severe fatigue and post-exertional malaise (PEM). Reported neuropsychophysiological abnormalities suggest ME/CFS is multifactorial, but current knowledge remains fragmented. This study protocol outlines a multimodal investigation designed to (1) compare neuropsychophysiological mechanisms between ME/CFS patients and healthy participants, (2) test an integrative model of ME/CFS, (3) identify neuropsychophysiological subgroups within the patient population, and (4) identify predictors of symptom response during rehabilitation. Methods and analysis: This study will enroll 115 ME/CFS patients and 55 healthy participants. Groups will be comparable in age, sex, and education level, with a larger patient sample enabling subgroup and longitudinal analyses. A cross-sectional assessment at baseline will be carried out in both groups. Patients will then be evaluated longitudinally throughout a standardized cognitive-behavioral therapy rehabilitation program delivered as routine care. Baseline measures include systemic inflammation and general health biomarkers, measures of autonomic and central nervous system function, neuroinflammation (magnetic resonance spectroscopy, [18F]DPA714 PET in a subsample), serum short-chain fatty acid levels, gut microbiota composition and function, and neuroendocrine and self-reported responses to psychosocial stress. Fatigue severity (physical and cognitive) and PEM will be assessed through validated questionnaires, ecological momentary assessment, and laboratory tasks. These will be re-evaluated during therapy, and all non-neuroimaging measures will be repeated after the rehabilitation program. Statistical analyses will comprise multivariate analysis of variance, general linear models, classification algorithms, structural equation models, least absolute shrinkage selection operator principal component regression (LASSO-PCR), cluster analysis and latent class growth analysis (LCGA).

Cultural engagement is associated longitudinally with better mental health and reduced depression incidence, but evidence has largely relied on self-reported symptoms and diagnoses, leaving uncertainty about clinically recorded disorders, and residual confounding remains a concern. Here, we examined whether cultural engagement (including going to cinemas, museums, galleries, exhibitions, theatre, concerts, or opera) predicts hospital-treated mental disorders in 8,274 adults aged 50 years or older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Participant records were linked to ICD-10 diagnoses in Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality records with follow-up of up to 20 years. In fully adjusted Cox models accounting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and social factors and multiple testing, frequent cultural engagement was associated with lower risk of any mental disorders (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.82, FDR adjusted P value<0.001), dementia (0.71, 0.56-0.89, FDR adjusted P value=0.010), substance misuse (0.75, 0.59-0.95,FDR adjusted P value=0.040), and mood disorders (0.73, 0.56-0.95, FDR adjusted P value=0.044), but not neurotic disorders. Associations persisted after excluding early incident cases and adjusting for baseline depressive symptoms and cognition, and showed robustness to unmeasured confounders. To further probe causality, eye disease, ear disease, and traumatic brain injury, which share similar socio-demographic profiles to mental disorders, were prespecified as negative control outcomes. Cultural engagement was not associated with any negative control outcomes. These findings provide triangulated statistical data to suggest that cultural engagement is associated with reduced risk of several clinically recorded mental disorders and support further testing of cultural engagement as a population mental health strategy.

Introduction: Brain-predicted age, estimated from structural MRI data, is a machine-learning biomarker of biological brain aging. Greater brain age gap (BAG) indicates advanced brain aging and is associated with cognitive decline and mortality. Cardiometabolic risk factors, including elevated blood glucose, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, and cholesterol, increase risk of cognitive impairment and dementia in aging. Their relationship with BAG in severe obesity remains poorly characterized despite increased prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors among this population. Methods: T1-weighted MRI data from 97 adults (BMI 35-73) were used to calculate BAG using ENIGMA and Pyment brain age models. Associations between BAG and HbA1c, BMI, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were examined using multiple linear regression and MM-estimation robust regression, adjusting for age, sex, and race. Post hoc analyses stratified models by clinical HbA1c cutoffs (normoglycemic, prediabetic, diabetic). Results: Higher HbA1c was associated with greater BAGENIGMA (B = 1.58, p = .014) and BAGPyment (B = 0.93, p = .013) in linear regression models. In robust models, HbA1c remained significantly associated with BAGENIGMA (B = 1.70, p = .002) but not BAGPyment (B = 0.71, p = .13). BMI, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were not associated with BAG in either linear or robust models. HbA1c was associated with greater BAGENIGMA (B = 2.15, p = .01) and BAGPyment (B =1.21, p = .04) in those at or above prediabetic levels and with BAGENIGMA (B = 2.49, p = .047) in those with diabetes. Conclusions: Elevated HbA1c is associated with accelerated brain aging in individuals with severe obesity. BAG was not associated with BMI, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia, which may reflect the restricted BMI range inherent to the sample with severe obesity.